Brazil, South Africa and South Korea are the only countries so far to have filled in the box on reductions committed; predictably each has put in the same target they were pledging before or during Copenhagen.
Ghana, the Maldives and PNG are in (irony), as are France, Australia and Canada, although these three Annex 1 countries are yet to reveal their reduction commitments. The odds on these or any other developed country that signs up exceeding existing national pledges are extremely long.
Cuba is out.
BASIC countries meet on Sunday 24 December and (China and India) will to a large extent determine the Accord’s fate. The Republican victory in Massachusetts probably means no US climate legislation in 2010; to a less significant extent, the likely return of a Conservative government in the UK could make EU climate politics more difficult from May onwards.
These are the post-Copenhagen politics of climate change at the international level and they appear almost entirely driven by significant national events.